The Winners: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Nevada, South Carolina, Utah, Washington, and Texas will gain at least 10 seats in aggregate, going from 99 Districts to 109 newly drawn seats. Each of these states picks up at least one seat with Texas gaining three. Massive changes in Congressional Districting will be required in all these states, as well.
The Losers: Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania all are estimated to lose one seat, except Ohio, which will lose two. After redistricting the constituents in these states — who now have 135 Representatives — will be down to 125.
Based upon the Project’s estimates, there are 10 seats in play, including an extra seat for Texas, a loss for California, Minnesota and Missouri and no pick-up for Washington and South Carolina, no loss for Illinois, a loss of only one seat for Ohio, a pick-up for Oregon, and an extra pickup for Florida.
| Estimated Congressional Seats Based Upon 2009 Population Data | ||||||||
| State | Population 2000 | Population 2009 | Change 2000 to 2009 |
% Change | Seats in 2000 | Estimated Seats in 2009 |
Change 2000 to 2009 |
Other Seats In Play |
| Alabama | 4,447,100 | 4,708,708 | 261,608 | 5.9 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Alaska | 626,932 | 698,473 | 71,541 | 11.4 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Arizona | 5,130,632 | 6,595,778 | 1,465,146 | 28.6 | 8 | 9 | 1 | 0 |
| Arkansas | 2,673,400 | 2,889,450 | 216,050 | 8.1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| California | 33,871,648 | 36,961,664 | 3,090,016 | 9.1 | 53 | 53 | 0 | -1 |
| Colorado | 4,301,261 | 5,024,748 | 723,487 | 16.8 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 0 |
| Connecticut | 3,405,565 | 3,518,288 | 112,723 | 3.3 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Delaware | 783,600 | 885,122 | 101,522 | 13.0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Florida | 15,982,378 | 18,537,969 | 2,555,591 | 16.0 | 25 | 26 | 1 | 1 |
| Georgia | 8,186,453 | 9,829,211 | 1,642,758 | 20.1 | 13 | 14 | 1 | 0 |
| Hawaii | 1,211,537 | 1,295,178 | 83,641 | 6.9 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Idaho | 1,293,953 | 1,545,801 | 251,848 | 19.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Illinois | 12,419,293 | 12,910,409 | 491,116 | 4.0 | 19 | 18 | -1 | 1 |
| Indiana | 6,080,485 | 6,423,113 | 342,628 | 5.6 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Iowa | 2,926,324 | 3,007,856 | 81,532 | 2.8 | 5 | 4 | -1 | 0 |
| Kansas | 2,688,418 | 2,818,747 | 130,329 | 4.9 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Kentucky | 4,041,769 | 4,314,113 | 272,344 | 6.7 | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 |
| Louisiana | 4,468,976 | 4,492,076 | 23,100 | 0.5 | 7 | 6 | -1 | 0 |
| Maine | 1,274,923 | 1,318,301 | 43,378 | 3.4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| Maryland | 5,296,486 | 5,699,478 | 402,992 | 7.6 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Massachusetts | 6,349,097 | 6,593,587 | 244,490 | 3.9 | 10 | 9 | -1 | 0 |
| Michigan | 9,938,444 | 9,969,727 | 31,283 | 0.3 | 15 | 14 | -1 | 0 |
| Minnesota | 4,919,479 | 5,266,214 | 346,735 | 7.1 | 8 | 8 | 0 | -1 |
| Mississippi | 2,844,658 | 2,951,996 | 107,338 | 3.8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 |
| Missouri | 5,595,211 | 5,987,580 | 392,369 | 7.0 | 9 | 9 | 0 | -1 |
| Montana | 902,195 | 974,989 | 72,794 | 8.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Nebraska | 1,711,263 | 1,796,619 | 85,356 | 5.0 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Nevada | 1,998,257 | 2,643,085 | 644,828 | 32.3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| New Hampshire | 1,235,786 | 1,324,575 | 88,789 | 7.2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| New Jersey | 8,414,350 | 8,707,739 | 293,389 | 3.5 | 13 | 12 | -1 | 0 |
| New Mexico | 1,819,046 | 2,009,671 | 190,625 | 10.5 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| New York | 18,976,457 | 19,541,453 | 564,996 | 3.0 | 29 | 28 | -1 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 8,049,313 | 9,380,884 | 1,331,571 | 16.5 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 0 |
| North Dakota | 642,200 | 646,844 | 4,644 | 0.7 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Ohio | 11,353,140 | 11,542,645 | 189,505 | 1.7 | 18 | 16 | -2 | 1 |
| Oklahoma | 3,450,654 | 3,687,050 | 236,396 | 6.9 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 |
| Oregon | 3,421,399 | 3,825,657 | 404,258 | 11.8 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 1 |
| Pennsylvania | 12,281,054 | 12,604,767 | 323,713 | 2.6 | 19 | 18 | -1 | 0 |
| Rhode Island | 1,048,319 | 1,053,209 | 4,890 | 0.5 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 |
| South Carolina | 4,012,012 | 4,561,242 | 549,230 | 13.7 | 6 | 7 | 1 | -1 |
| South Dakota | 754,844 | 812,383 | 57,539 | 7.6 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Tennessee | 5,689,283 | 6,296,254 | 606,971 | 10.7 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 |
| Texas | 20,851,820 | 24,782,302 | 3,930,482 | 18.9 | 32 | 35 | 3 | 1 |
| Utah | 2,233,169 | 2,784,572 | 551,403 | 24.7 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 0 |
| Vermont | 608,827 | 621,760 | 12,933 | 2.1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Virginia | 7,078,515 | 7,882,590 | 804,075 | 11.4 | 11 | 11 | 0 | 0 |
| Washington | 5,894,121 | 6,664,195 | 770,074 | 13.1 | 9 | 10 | 1 | -1 |
| West Virginia | 1,808,344 | 1,819,777 | 11,433 | 0.6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| Wisconsin | 5,363,675 | 5,654,774 | 291,099 | 5.4 | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| Wyoming | 493,782 | 544,270 | 50,488 | 10.2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 |
| Source: Analysis of 2009 Census State Population Congressional seats by state estimated from 2009 State Census Population Estimates adjusted to reflect 2000 proportion of military population serving abroad. “Other Seats in Play” are seats in states where the formula is very close to the threshold where an additional seat may be awarded or an allocated seat may not be reflected in the final reapportionment based upon Census 2010 | ||||||||
