Massive Redistricting Is Now Inevitable
Every seat in Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Louisiana, Massachusetts, Michigan, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania to need to be redrawn; Texas and California face major changes as well.
Data just released – the last release before Census 2010 – confirm that U.S. Congressional Districts will have to be massively redistricted. Real Elections Project analysis shows that, because of 2000-09 shifts in population between states and within states, the boundaries of more than half of the seats in the U.S. House of Representatives will have to be redrawn.
December 23, 2009
State Winners and Losers
Texas, Arizona, Nevada, and Utah among states that will gain seats; Ohio, Illinois, New Jersey, New York, and Pennsylvania are among the states that will lose seats. Several other seats are still in play, and will be determined by population changes not yet fully measured by the Census Bureau.
December 23, 2009
Top 10 District Disparities
Congressional Districts within a state are supposed to reflect absolute population equality. Because of population shifts since 2000, however, more than 30% of Districts now vary from that requirement by more than 10%, including more than three dozen that vary by more than 20%.
December 23, 2009
The Case of Texas
Texas districts — especially those towards the border with Mexico and not in the inner city or rural areas — need to be substantially redrawn. Areas of high immigration need to be accommodated with greater representation as well.
December 23, 2009
The Case of California
Though California will probably not lose a seat, the maps plainly shows that the seats will need to be redistributed away from the coast and the inner city areas and out to the recently growing areas inland.
December 23, 2009